Analysis Of The Impact Of Land Use Change And Climate Change On The Flows İn The Blue Nile River Using SWAT

Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Applıed Sciences, Water Resources Engineering, Belçika

Tez Danışmanı: Willy Bauwens

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2010

Tezin Dili: İngilizce

Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu

Özet:

This research aims to evaluate the impacts of land use change and climate change on both hydrologic regimes and water resources of the Blue Nile River Basin found mainly in Ethiopia and Sudan where observed hydrologic data are limited. The downstream countries of the Nile River Basin are sensitive to the variability of runoff from the
Ethiopian part of the basin. This research presents three steps for analyzing land use and climate change impacts of the Blue Nile basin on hydrology and water resources of the river. The first step is to improve the available SWAT model of the Blue Nile basin and evaluate its applicability for Land Use change and Climate Change assessment taking into consideration the limited data availability and the scale of the basin. The hydrologic model uses the constructed climate scenarios as input to predict runoff. The second is the construction of the climate change scenarios whereby the simulation outcomes of the multiple general circulation models (GCMs) scenarios will be used in the
available SWAT model to compare them with the baseline climate simulation using the current precipitation and temperature patterns. In the final step, land use and cover change impacts on hydrology and water resources of the basin are examined using hypothetical Land Use and Cover (LUC) scenarios.
The results suggest that (1) the climate in most of the Blue Nile River Basin is likely to become warmer towards the end of the century but the precipitation change does not exhibit a uniform pattern (2) the future flow has not been agreed by the GCM models where some estimate an increase in flow flooding, erosion…) while others estimating a decrease in flow (low flows, extended dam filling time, potencial shortage,…) (3) Land use and cover change due to natural (e.g. forest fire) and anthropogenic causes (e.g. deforestation) has proven to have significant impact on the flow regime of the Basin. The results, however uncertain with existing accuracy of climate models, suggest
that land use and climate change will have a significant impact on the Blue Nile River which accounts for 60% of the Nile annual flow. This will definitely have an impact on water resources of the downstream riparian countries, thus need get due concern from the stake holders and decision-makers.