Chaotic Dynamics and Forecasting in Monthly Rate Employment Time Series: The Case of Australia, Colombia, Greece, Turkey and USA
6th International Interdisciplinary Symposium on Chaos and Complex Systems, SCCS 2025, İstanbul, Türkiye, 8 - 10 Mayıs 2025, ss.297-308, (Tam Metin Bildiri)
- Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Tam Metin Bildiri
- Doi Numarası: 10.1007/978-3-032-09101-7_26
- Basıldığı Şehir: İstanbul
- Basıldığı Ülke: Türkiye
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.297-308
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Artificial neural networks, Employment rate, Nonlinear time series analysis, Socio-physics
- İstanbul Kültür Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This paper investigates possible emerging nonlinear dynamical patterns and behaviors in the study and analysis of the monthly employment rate data across five diverse economies: Australia, Colombia, Greece, Turkey, and the USA. The countries chosen from four different continents, while in the case of Europe two countries with different characteristics (EU member and non-EU members or small and large population, etc.) have been chosen, to further support the feature of diversity in our study. Additionally, the forecasting potential of employment rate in the above countries is explored. In specific, the primary objective of this research is to identify and quantify the existence of deterministic chaos in the complex socioeconomic environment of a country by analyzing the timeseries of employment rate employing nonlinear dynamics analysis. The methodology applied incorporates advanced nonlinear time series analysis techniques rooted in chaos theory. Finally, in this brief, we compare the reliability of the utilized forecasting methods and model, thereby contributing to improved predictability in labor market trends.