Informality Creep in Formal Housing: A Data-Driven Risk Prioritization Framework for Global South Peripheries
LAND, cilt.2026, sa.15, ss.1-24, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 2026 Sayı: 15
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.3390/land15071116
- Dergi Adı: LAND
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Scopus, Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Geobase, CAB Abstracts, Directory of Open Access Journals
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-24
- Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
- İstanbul Kültür Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
The rapidly urbanizing peripheries of the Global South face significant demographic pres-sures, leading to governance deficits that often neglect the long-term structural safety of new buildings. While regulatory frameworks predominantly emphasize initial construc-tion quality, they frequently overlook the critical “post-occupancy” phase, during which distinct structural risks accumulate. This study introduces a reproducible, open-data risk identification framework designed to trace theoretical “windows of vulnerability” in Çek-meköy, a peripheral district of Istanbul. By triangulating temporal, spatial, and demo-graphic municipal administrative records from 2018 to 2024, we illustrated how low-cost data can serve as proxies for prioritizing structural risk assessments. The findings demon-strate that a 103% population increase between 2008 and 2023, coupled with a 21% reduc-tion in the average household size, has generated urgent housing demand that outpaces supply. We hypothesize that these conditions create high-probability zones for “informal-ity creep,” where demographic pressures induce informal practices, such as unauthorized structural modifications within ostensibly formal high-rise settings. The primary contri-bution is a transferable algorithmic tool, the Weighted Post-Occupancy Vulnerability In-dex (POVI). Rather than serving as a deterministic building-level diagnostic, this frame-work operates much like an epidemiological screening process; it acts as a macroscopic prioritization heuristic that allows resource-constrained municipalities to proactively di-rect their inspection efforts. By mathematically quantifying the conditions under which post-occupancy risks develop, this framework provides an essential resource for enhanc-ing urban resilience during reactive urbanism planning.
Keywords: reactive urbanism; post-occupancy risk; informality creep;