Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Energy and Buildings, cilt.357, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
The preconstruction phase offers a pivotal yet underexplored opportunity to mitigate embodied carbon. However, isolated technical solutions have led to a “plateau of insufficiency” in decarbonization efforts. This study demonstrates that overcoming this systemic stagnation requires a strategic shift from fragmented tools to a configurational approach that activates synergies between expertise, policy, and stakeholder commitment. We introduce a novel framework integrating Crisp-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) to analyze Turkey’s MSME-driven construction sector. The csQCA results identify Carbon-Reductive Engineering Expertise as the non-negotiable core condition for systemic change, capable of compensating for weaknesses in procurement and policy. Dynamic simulations validate this finding, showing that while standalone mandates fail, expertise-focused policies are the primary engine of transformation. A synergistic joint intervention, combining upskilling with procurement reform, accelerates the systemic tipping point from ∼ 40 years to ∼ 26 years (t ≈ 315 ± 40 months). This integrated strategy can achieve a 30% reduction in embodied carbon, generate 12,000 green jobs annually, and yield 15% project cost savings. The resulting QCA-ABM framework provides a scalable, data-driven roadmap for policymakers in emerging economies to design effective decarbonization strategies that enhance climate resilience and align with global sustainability goals.